The Market is Mounting the Bull; The Economy is Yet to Get Back to The Pre-Covid Level

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At present, the investors seem to be anxious about IPO flood in the equity markets. At the  happening hinge, with valuation cycles, a sensible investor will focus on sectoral valuation, as  investing in growing businesses may swirl towards losses, if incorrectly valued. 

Today, end-user segments like staple, finance, retail, chemicals, information technology and  metals, look extremely overrated sectors which are not advisable. Considering investing in  domestic-centric businesses linked to the cyclical segments of the market can mark the market both reasonably and attractively valued.  

Talking about the present market condition, understanding valuations between different sectors  and stocks is possible with the price to book valuation matrix which easily gives an understanding  of where the market stands. As the earning cycle is picking up massively, Nifty’s price to book  valuation could extend to the tune of 1 lac till 2030. Earnings growth orbit will be the vital construct in the next five to seven years.  

Perceiving the current valuation across market segments hinting at some corrections. Digital and technology-related sectors look extremely over-valued with no returns to brace. In continuation  to this, ESG, Electric Vehicle and specialty chemicals can liquefy materially in the near future. 

Sectors which seems to be performing in the future are pharma formulations, auto & auto ancillary and banking. Since the real estate sector is picking up, consumer goods linked to the  home improvement segment will gain. There comes the concept of early cyclical sectors makes the economy on the uptrend.  

As an amateur principle, 70% could be allocated in equity and balance 30% in debt. It is advisable  that within equity, 20% may be invested in pharma & healthcare, 50% in multi cap funds, 20% in  balanced advantage funds and another 10% in small cap funds. 

The position of the mutual fund industry can be depicted from the mid cap and small cap  segments. Multi cap funds have defined allocations across market caps, which can be a fruitful in the next few years for making reasonably good risk-adjusted returns over the long term. 

The roaring, powered by a surge of cash untethered by central banks and the rise of individual  investors, eager to buy a chunk of their favorite companies. The listings and record  oversubscriptions of the pulsating universe have witnessed record oversubscription and listing  gains. 2021 is all set to become the biggest year for primary markets in terms of fundraising.

How is the Indian Stock Market Reacting to the Coronavirus Impact?

How is the Indian Stock Market Reacting to the Coronavirus Impact

Impact of Covid 19 on the global markets

In the past few weeks, the stock prices have fallen drastically and the market saw a downfall of nearly a third of the global market cap. The whole world has been badly affected by the spread of the virus forcing companies to shut down, heavy unemployment and huge downfall in the economy. Almost all major most economic activities have impacted by the disease. The markets have been heavily damaged by the Covid 19 and the effects are visible on the global economic growth. The global gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for 2020 has halved by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). 

Current Situation in Indian Markets

Although, the market has slightly started to rise slowly such sudden fall in stock valuations and other instabilities have triggered panic across the world and shaken the confidence of investors. The past Friday turned out to be in favour of the investors. In the end, Sensex stood at closed 20% below the peak achieved two months ago whilst other markets which have fallen more. 

When the equity and debt instruments were already hit badly, the crude oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has only worsened the economic conditions injecting volatility into other assets. Now, the economic tension has extended to currency and commodities market.

Suggested Measures for Ensuring Financial Safety of Investments

Investment professional prefers investment in high performing- financially strong stocks with relatively higher earnings & profitability, solid balance sheets, bigger cash flows, and more effective management should be preferred. At the same time, professional advisers also suggest equity investors alter their portfolio allocation towards large-cap and multi-cap stocks as the market correction might be a little prevalent in the short term.

It might be suggested this is a good time for long term investors to buy high valuation stocks at low levels. For making a profitable investment and subsequent appreciation in the investments value few conditions shall be seen such as high-profit margin stock, low debt and innate capability & financial soundness to sustain even if the share prices touch the rock bottom due to instabilities. 

The more-safe investment options might also be suggestible like Corporate Bond funds / Banking & PSU Debt Fund which provide more reliability and trustworthiness in future which seems highly dynamic due to the highly volatile markets.

What is Stock Exchange?

What is stock exchange

Stock exchanges are markets where the participants come together for buying and selling of financial instruments such as shares, debentures, bonds, etc. it is run by set rules and regulations set by appropriate bodies such as SEBI in India.  Only the securities of listed companies are traded with stock exchanges. All such stock exchanges shall be recognized by the government and only registered brokers and members are allowed to trade instruments on it.  

There are around 9 official Stock Exchanges in India-

  1. Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)  
  2. National Stock Exchange of India (NSE)  
  3. Calcutta Stock Exchange 
  4. India International Exchange (India INX)  
  5. Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) 
  6. Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (MSE)  
  7. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX)  
  8. National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX)  
  9. NSE IFSC Ltd. (NSE International Exchange)

3 Reasons Why We Should Invest in Falling Markets?

Invest in Falling Markets

Recently the Indian Stock markets were seen crashing into a bearish phase where the stock prices fell more than 20% from the recent highs. Bear markets occur during economic recessions or depressions when pessimism prevails. In such markets, the prices of the securities drop heavily, and a negative sentiment causes a selling pressure upon the current which force the prices to stoop down even further.

As a general human behavior, most of the investors opt out of the securities they were holding and are ready to sell their investments at a lower price. This situation is often seen with a skeptical point of view. There is, generally, a lot of pressure upon the investors as well as on their financial advisors. One wrong decision or miscalculation could lead to a major financial loss. In common parlance, this situation is very stressful and involves a lot of decision making. But, despite all such risks in investments such scenarios can actually prove to be a good chance to reap some good alphas and it might not be incorrect to say that no matter how much villainous this phase looks like, it might offer you a good opportunity to earn.

Good Stocks at Affordable Rates

Legendary investor Warren Buffet had once stated, “Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise, when it is marked down.” This is what happens in a bearish market. The prices of all shares both good and bad tend to fall down, opening a window to invest in lower than normal rates. As more people invest in such securities, the prices tend to recover and the growth is set back to the track.

Better Investment Options Highlight Up

As we have seen, the bearish markets are always preceded by tough economic conditions. In difficult environment, the corporates may struggle in paying their debts and other liabilities highlighting their creditworthiness. The creditworthiness is often rated by various independent credit rating authorities. When such reports declare a good report it means the organization is financially sound and is a good to shot to take.

In short, we can summarize that bearish phase is comparatively shorter than its counterpart, i.e. Bull. Therefore, the impact of bearish market upon the securities doesn’t sustain for a long time. The good stocks of companies having great creditworthiness shine in the bullish market following the bearish phase. So, the advice to invest in falling markets is highly justified subject to risk & careful

Why are the Corporate Giants Opting Out of the New Tax Cut-Off Scheme of Modi 2.0?

Why are the Corporate Giants Opting Out of the New Tax Cut-Off Scheme of Modi

Story till Now

To stir up the economy, the Union Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman has announced heavy tax cut off wherein the effective tax rate of around 35% has been reduced to mere 25%. On top of that, the tax rate for new domestic firms and new manufacturing units that set up in India, starting in October and commence production before the end of March, 2023 will be taxed at an effective rate of just 17%.  

This announcement of the Central Government has been received with great enthusiasm by the market as the Sensex hiked up by 1900 on Friday and 1300 points on Monday. This decision, although would cause a revenue loss of around Rs. 1.5 lakh crore to the Union government, is being considered a much needed support by the government to support the falling economy.

Will the benefits of tax reduction be transferred to Consumer?

 This move has been praised by all the business related community and has attracted investors. The tax-reduction, normally, results in lower costs and thereby higher demand for goods or services and ultimately resulting in the treatment of ailing demand. However, for now, it is rational to assume that the Businesses will not be transferring the benefits to the customers. The benefits from such tax reductions might be used to recover the losses that the organizations have faced because of the stagnant demand. 

Recently, nearly every sector was affected by the poor demands and caused huge losses to the Indian market, resulting in loss of jobs and huge unemployment. So, we assume that the benefits would be definitely but not immediately transferred to the ultimate consumers, i.e. once the companies are have made good all the losses incurred by them in the past few months. 

How is the corporate industry reacting for the same?

As stated above, this has provided benefits to the organizations by reduced tax slab and even higher market evaluation for most of the Companies. Although, now the corporate have the option of opting lower tax regime but the condition of foregoing other exemptions has made an economic dilemma in the minds of corporate. Therefore, we are seeing two kinds of actions by the corporate.

Some corporate are opting in the new tax rates and availing the benefits that new policies provide. However, on the other, few corporate such as Godrej and Dabur are opting out of the new scheme. 

Why are some corporates opting out of the new scheme? 

These actions by the giants follow their decisions to claim exemptions provided in the various sections of Income Tax Act, 1961 which would lapse if these corporate giants opt for the new scheme. As far as we can say, the companies who have a lot of exemptions to claim might skip the new schemes as of now and once these exemption benefits have been satisfied, they would opt in the new schemes.

We would like to conclude that companies which are willing to reap the benefits from various exemption-related provisions of the Income Tax Act tax cut off are opting out of the new schemes, rest are highly satisfied by the ‘new gift’ of the Finance Minister.

Why the Indian Market Rose up By 1900 Points?

Why the Indian Market Rose up By 1900 Point

On Friday, the Indian government launched an all out attack on the drooping Indian economy to counter the economic slowdown. Surprisingly, it was welcomed by the investors at a great level where the Sensex rose by over 1900 points and Nifty closed at 11,254. 

The main attraction of the announcement made by the Finance Minister was the tremendous decrease in the tax slab of corporate tax rate. In order to boost up the businesses, there was a significant  cut in the corporate tax rates, the effective tax rate (inclusive of surcharges) for domestic corporate, have been reduced from 34.94% to 25.17%. 

 Also, the tax rate for new domestic firms and new manufacturing units that set up in India, starting in October and commence production before the end of March, 2023 will be taxed at an effective rate of just 17%. 

The above decision of the government is being called as the most visible factor leading to the drastic change in the market, where Sensex and Nifty observed their biggest one-day rise since 2009.

What does this offer to the economy?

The decision clearly offers an incentive to the Indian markets to invest more in the corporate. As, most of advisors are suggesting, the present tax cut has made the country more competitive on a global level as far as corporate taxes were ever concerned. 

It must be noted that whenever such cuts are made there is obviously a loss of revenue for the state. However, such a loss is generally recovered if such an incentive is actually able to stir up the market. There are many benefits, this might bring such as more investment, employment, etc.

 Would it be actually helpful?

Whether or not this change of corporate actually stimulates the current economic slowdown, would be seen in time, but we would like to state what the experts are advise. On one hand, people are saying that this reduction is just a concession rather an actual help. As the real problem is the reduction in demand. Others say that the structural reforms such as GST has caused a loss in the demand of goods and employment. So, it is possible that such a reduction might actually help the current situation.

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